Tag Archives: Market Trends

NAHB: Builder Confidence Slips in June

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NAHB Builder Confidence Slips in JuneHomebuilder confidence dropped two points in June according to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index. June’s index reading was 64, which indicates strong sentiment among home builders for current housing market conditions.

NAHB component readings also dropped in June with builder confidence in current home sales one point lower at an index reading of 71. Home builder confidence in home sales conditions over the next six months dropped two points to 70 and builder confidence in buyer traffic was one point lower at 48. Buyer traffic readings seldom exceed the NAHB benchmark reading of 50. Index readings over 50 indicate that most builders have positive sentiment toward conditions surveyed.

Home Builders Cite Ongoing Concerns and Growing Worry Over Tariffs

Home builders surveyed for June’s Housing Market Index cited continued concerns over shortages of labor and buildable lots, but also worried over increased materials costs resulting from recent tariffs. Analysts said that high demand for homes is driven by a current shortage of several million available homes; demand should be driving builder sentiment and housing starts much higher than current levels. Builder sentiment reported in the Housing Market Index typically drove housing starts, but this hasn’t been the case in the aftermath of the housing crisis. Severe shortages of homes for sale drive home prices up; this creates competition between buyers and sidelines first-time and moderate income home buyers.

While buyer traffic is robust, headwinds including high home prices and concerns about general economic conditions could be keeping would-be buyers on the fence. Low mortgage rates, which may drop further if the Federal Reserve lowers its key lending rate, could prompt more buyers to enter the market, but rapidly rising home prices in recent years have caused would-be buyers to hold off on buying homes. Faced with few options and high home prices, buyers may be waiting until more homes come on the market. Industry leaders have long said that building more homes is the only way to resolve the shortage of homes and high demand from home buyers.

Faced with rising materials costs and strict zoning rules, builders are tasked to find affordable housing solutions when fewer buildable lots and zoning rules discourage higher density affordable housing developments.

 

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in March

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Case-Shiller Home Price Growth Slows in MarchCase-Shiller Indices reported slower home price growth in March with a 3.70 percent gain year-over-year as compared to 3.90 percent home price growth for the year-over-year period in 2018. This was the slowest pace of home price growth in seven years.

The 20-City Home Price Index showed Las Vegas, Nevada as having the top year-over-year home price growth rate of 8.20 percent; Phoenix, Arizona had year-over-year home price growth of 6.10 percent. Tampa, Florida had the third highest growth rate for home prices at 5.30 percent. Analysts said that all three cities continue their recoveries from deep home price declines during the recession.

Did Home Prices Grow Too Fast?

David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the S&P Dow Jones Index Committee, said that given strong economic signs in other sectors, housing should be doing better. He said that too-high home price gains may have caused slowing growth in home prices as fewer prospective buyers can afford skyrocketing home prices in many metro areas.

The 20-City Home Price Index showed New York City was the only metro area posting a negative growth rate in March; this was attributed to the region’s already high home prices. Fluctuating mortgage rates likely sidelined some prospective home buyers, especially first-time and moderate income buyers.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that home affordability reached a ten-year low in the end of 2018. Coupled with short supplies of affordable homes and builders focusing on high end housing development, shortages of affordable homes are expected to continue, particularly in high demand metro areas.

Slower home price growth indicates that the rapid rise in home prices in recent years aren’t sustainable as fewer prospective buyers can afford to buy homes or cannot qualify for purchase money mortgages. When home prices rise faster than inflation and wages, home buyers encounter more challenges in their searches for affordable homes.

 

5 Ways To Find Properties For Sale That Are Not Listed Yet

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5 Ways To Find Properties For Sale That Are Not Listed YetReal estate agents, who are successful, know that getting listings is the life energy of their business. It is boring to sit around waiting for a new client to call. It is expensive to spend extraordinary amounts of money on general advertising to get listings. Clever real estate people learn how to find properties for sale before they are listed.

Value Of Unlisted Properties

Real estate agents and investors have a competitive advantage when they find properties for sale that are not listed. These off-market properties may be available at a better price. There may have little or no other competition from other potential buyers making an offer. Real estate agents can motivate buyers to move quickly to close a deal on an unlisted property before it goes on the market.

Finding Off-Market Properties

Here are five ways to find properties before they are listed:

1. Check Tax Records

Sometimes it is as simple as looking up the current owner in the tax records, making a contact, and giving an offer. That direct approach may work well as long as enough contacts are made to improve the odds of finding a motivated seller.

2. Maintain Contact With Past Buyers

Real estate agents should always stay in contact with past buyers of a property that they sold. On the anniversary of the sale date, send a nice postcard with a handwritten note that says something like “I remembered this was the date you bought your home (or building). If you ever want to sell it, give me a call.”

3. Networking

Another technique is in-person networking with people. Join professional associations, mingle with people, and learn what neighborhood they live in. Tell them someone is thinking of moving there and ask them if they might be considering selling their home or if they know someone who is.

4. Friendly Neighborhood Scouting

Become known in a neighborhood as a buyer. When an investor likes a neighborhood, a terrific strategy is to wander around, knock on doors, and hand out business cards.

People hate someone knocking on the door who is trying to sell them something. However, they usually have a very positive reaction when someone wants to buy the home. There is no need to be shy. Walk around a neighborhood, get to know it better, and the people who live there.

5. Title Companies And Real Estate Departments Of Banks

Make friends with the staff at title companies. Get to know the people working at banks in the real estate department that handles the short sales and foreclosures. These two groups are very strong sources for off-market deals.

The staff of title companies knows when a sale fails at the last moment due to loan funding issues. Bank staff knows when new foreclosures come in before they list for resale. By moving fast, an investor takes advantage of the short gaps between the time these properties are available for sale and when they get listed.

Summary

Learning how to find off-market properties creates many benefits. Investment opportunities expand for real estate investors and real estate agents create more listings for themselves with these proactive strategies. Think of this as a treasure hunt and it actually can be a lot of fun.

One of the best ways to be prepared to purchase a new property is to have your pre-approval in place. Be sure to meet with your trusted mortgage professional to discuss your financing options.

NAHB: May Home Builder Confidence Hits Highest Level in 7 Months

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NAHB May Home Builder Confidence Hits Highest Level in 7 MonthsThe National Association of Home Builders reported the highest builder confidence reading in seven months for May. May’s reading exceeded expectations for an index reading of 64 and rose three points to 67.

Component readings for the main NAHB reading were also higher. Builder confidence in current housing market conditions rose three points to 72; confidence in housing market conditions for the next six months rose one point to 72 and the reading for buyer traffic in single-family housing developments rose two points to 49.

Any reading over 50 indicates most builders are positive about housing market conditions, but the reading for buyer traffic is often lower than 50. May’s reading suggests that builders were expecting solid buyer traffic as the peak home buying season started. The average NAHB Housing Market Index reading for 2018 was 67; 2019’s average reading is 62.

March housing starts were the lowest in two years. Lower mortgage rates could increase demand for homes and possibly compel builders to ratchet up construction, but there are no guarantees that low mortgage rates will hold steady over the long run.

Builders Cite Ongoing Obstacles Including Tariffs And Labor Costs

Home builders continued to experience higher materials and labor costs. Tariffs were cited as a cause of higher materials costs that are passed on to buyers by raising home prices. While would-be buyers may enter the market due to lower mortgage rates, higher home prices are likely to sideline first-time and moderate income buyers who are concerned with affordability and strict mortgage qualification requirements.

Freddie Mac reported that based on its survey of recent buyers, about 16 percent of recent home buyers relied on seller assistance. While seller contributions to home buyers are carefully regulated, this type of transaction can help buyers get into a home without spending their last dollar.

Rapidly rising home prices and buyer competition have skewed housing markets in favor of sellers in high-demand markets, but slower growth of home prices in recent months could help more renters buy homes. Continued trade negotiations and increased tariffs on China could impact housing costs depending on terms of negotiations and tariffs imposed.

 

How to Become A Billionaire Land Trader

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How to Become A Billionaire Land TraderTrading land like a billionaire relies on three simple premises. The first one is to acquire the land for cheap. The second one is to never intend to sell it. The third one is, if you trade it, trade up.

Howard Hughes

Billionaires that start with an inheritance have an advantage. Howard Hughes was born into wealth. His father invented an oil drill that penetrated difficult, hard rock, which made Howard Hughes one of the richest men in the world from his inheritance.

Hughes visited Las Vegas during WWII for the first time. Then, in the 1950s, he traded some parcels of desert land that he owned in Northern Nevada for 40 square miles (26,500 acres) of federal land. This property, managed by the US Bureau of Land Management, was in the northwest of Las Vegas.

Hughes died on April 5, 1976. Well after his death, this land would later become the master-planned community of Summerlin. The first family moved into Summerlin during 1991.

Vacant lots in Summerlin now sell for an average of $2 million per acre. This makes the land Hughes originally acquired by a trade of land worth a few million, equal to about $53 billion today.

Billionaire Lessons

Howard Hughes was not exactly clever. He was just greedy and stubborn. He decided to make Las Vegas his home after he came for a party in 1966. He stayed at the Desert Inn in the penthouse. After ten days, when his reservation was over, the manager asked him to leave. Instead, stubborn Hughes bought the hotel.

Next, Hughes went on a buying spree. He bought three casinos. He acquired all the vacant lots around the Desert Inn. He purchased all the vacant land on both sides of the street that became known as the Las Vegas strip. He bought the North Las Vegas airport and the land around the McCarron International Airport, which is right off the strip. Hughes’ appetite for buying things was insatiable.

The lesson learned is to buy and hold all the key land that is available. Be patient. It took 40 years for the land value in Summerlin to really take off in terms of value. Hughes did not live to see this but maybe he is laughing from his grave. One thing is certain, the desert land that, long ago, nobody but Hughes wanted became worth a fortune.

Investing In Raw Land

Investing in raw land that becomes valuable depends on just a few considerations, which include:

  • Location: Select land that is in the path of future growth.
  • Hold: Be prepared to own the land for a very long time.
  • Stimulate Development: Develop the area or encourage others to do so.

Summary

Land traders achieve success by being extremely patient. They are able to imagine the future growth of an area ahead of others. Land trading may create long-term opportunities because of the continual expansion of the population. This happens frequently around metropolitan areas in many parts of America. 

If buying land appeals to you, be sure to meet with your trusted mortgage professional to discuss investment financing options.

FOMC Statement: No Changes to Key Fed Rate

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FOMC Statement No Changes to Key Fed RateThe meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee ended Wednesday with the Committee’s customary post-meeting statement recapping monetary policy matters considered by the Committee. Members voted not to change the current target rate range of the federal funds rate. The current rate range of 2.25 percent to 2.50 percent.

Federal Funds Target Rate Range: Monetary Policymakers Remain “Patient“

FOMC members cited low inflation pressures, global and domestic economic and financial developments as supporting the Committee’s decision to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged despite recent political pressures to lower the rate and increase the Fed’s accommodative stance toward boosting the economy.

FOMC members evaluated actual and expected economic conditions, labor markets and readings on global and domestic current events and economic news. Based on their assessments, FOMC members again asserted their willingness to be patient concerning Committee decisions to change the federal funds rate range.

The Fed’s dual mandate of supporting maximum employment and stable pricing as indicated by low national unemployment rates and the benchmark inflation rate of two percent are foundational influences on any decision about changing the Fed’s key interest rate range; the national unemployment rate has hovered near a historically low rate of 3.80 percent in recent months and inflation is also below the Fed’s benchmark of two percent.

Fed Chair: No Strong Case for Moving Federal Funds Rate in Either Direction

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said during his post-meeting press conference that FOMC members did not see a strong case for moving the federal funds rate in either direction. Mr. Powell cited improvements in global economic conditions within Europe and China and said that trade negotiations with China and Japan were also improved.

When asked about lowering the Federal funds rate based on lower inflation rates, Chairman Powell said that maintaining inflation near two percent was important, but viewed lower inflation during the first quarter of 2019 as a result of transitory influences. He reassured his audience that short-term fluctuations in the inflation were not considered a problem.

Chairman Powell said that the Fed is not influenced by political pressure and that the Fed’s monetary policy is not based in any way on political commentary or pressures. Mr. Powell said the outlook for domestic economic growth was good based on consumer spending and business investments. He said that resolution of trade issues would likely improve consumer sentiment.

 

3 Pros And Cons Of Renting Or Owning A Home

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3 Pros And Cons Of Renting Or Owning A HomeHome ownership is highly valued in our culture. However, buying a home isn’t the best decision for everyone. Examine the differences between owning and renting your home to help you decide if now is the time to buy.

Effect On Flexibility

Renters enjoy more freedom than homeowners. After the leasing period ends, renters are free to walk away and find a new place to live. Homeowners, on the other hand, are at the mercy of the market. Depending on the conditions, owners might have a hard time selling their property quickly. It also takes a lot more paperwork to sell a home than it does to end a lease.

Those who don’t have plans to stay settled for at least a few years might be better off renting their homes. If circumstances suddenly change, they have more options than heavily-invested homeowners.

Financial Concerns

Home equity is a huge perk of ownership. A home equity line of credit gives homeowners a source of quick cash for emergencies or to take advantage of investment opportunities. These loans come with friendly options that make them ideal funding for a variety of situations. 

It’s a myth that renting is more expensive than owning without taking home value appreciation into account. When monthly expenses are compared side-by-side, owners invest more of their income into their living space than renters.

Beyond monthly mortgage payments, homeowners are responsible for insurance, property taxes, and utilities like garbage and water that are generally included in rental prices. In addition, homeowners bear the full cost of maintenance and repairs.

Owning a home can be a safeguard against harsh financial circumstances and give the opportunity for the appreciation of home value. However, for those who are currently cash-strapped, renting may be the more wallet-friendly choice.

Your Lifestyle

When things go wrong, renters can rely on their landlord or management company to coordinate and facilitate repairs. Homeowners, however, are solely responsible for handling the condition of their property. Besides the financial costs, it can take hours of research and dirty work to preserve your residential property.

If you enjoy handiwork, the chores associated with home ownership aren’t such a big deal. For the more technically challenged, however, taking care of a home could become a hassle.

Be honest about your abilities, interests, and resources before you commit to a home purchase.

If you are considering a new home purchase, be sure to contact your trusted home mortgage professional to find out about your financing options and to get pre-approved.

Are Multi-Unit Properties the Right Move for You?

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Are Multi-Unit Properties the Right Move for YouReal estate isn’t a one-size-fits-all pursuit. Buying and renting multi-unit properties is one of the ways investors build residual income while increasing their property portfolios. However, multi-unit rentals come with some unique challenges. Are you ready to manage a multi-unit rental property?

Ask yourself these questions to help you decide which path best fits your resources, goals, and interests.

Do You Plan To Live On The Property?

Living in one of your rental units offers a myriad of benefits. First, you get to keep a close eye on building conditions and the actions of your renters. Next, you’ll be able to respond quickly to an emergency. Last, you won’t have to pay extra for your own living quarters. You won’t have this option with single-occupancy properties.

Will You Work With A Property Management Company?

If you are more of a hands-off investor, a property management company makes owning properties simple. Their staff will collect the rents, respond to requests for maintenance and repairs, and take care of all the paperwork that comes along with rental units.

All you need to do is collect your portion of the payments and keep up with your bank loans. You can still work with a property management company if you opt for single-family properties. However, it may not be the most cost-effective solution in that situation.

Are Market Conditions In Your Area Changing Quickly?

When rental prices go up, it can be difficult for investors to take advantage. Long-term occupants may balk at the idea of paying more for the same property. With multi-unit buildings, you can raise prices as tenants vacate. In this way, you can keep your current occupants happy without sacrificing potential profits.

Are You Looking For More Ways To Increase Your Income?

Multi-unit properties are a unique opportunity for enterprising investors. Rent out space under stairways or in common areas to vending machine companies. Your residents get convenient snacks and you earn a little extra cash each month. A coin-operated laundry room is another addition that adds value for your residents while increasing your own payouts.

Managing a multi-unit building means more paperwork, maintenance, and marketing. However, the potential profits might be worth it. Take some time to review your own goals and abilities before committing to a purchase.

Be sure to consult with your trusted real estate and mortgage professionals to find out more information about purchasing multi-unit rentals.

Big Cities vs. Secondary Markets: Where to Buy?

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Big Cities vs. Secondary Markets Where to BuyAtlanta, Charlotte, New York and Los Angeles are always on the real estate radar because of big ticket sales and good media coverage. The secondary markets – those markets without the celebrity undertones – may actually be better deals. With the price of borrowing money rising and occupation rates dropping in primary markets, places like Nashville and Birmingham are looking better to investors.

Where Are the Secondary Markets?

A secondary market is generally defined as a mid size or large city that has recorded an uptick in growth in the immediate past. They do not have quite the economic clout or media presence of a primary market, although they may rival each other in terms of population.

Generally, the influx of new attention for a secondary market will be from young professionals. These are people who are upwardly mobile and seeking new forms of skilled employment. This is what has driven the markets of cities like San Antonio, San Jose, San Diego, Phoenix and Philadelphia to new heights in recent years.

What Do Experts Think?

Experts believe that primary markets have topped out for the time being. With occupancy rates dropping from highs in the lower 90 percentiles, primary markets are just too saturated for their own good. Landlords in these areas are more unwilling to lower rents in these areas, because there are usually more high income earners established there who want to stay in the area to keep a legacy job or maintain a family.

Rising real estate prices and interest rates also put the primary housing market out of the reach of many outsiders. Researchers have found that doing real estate business in a secondary market can provide an investor with a 16% premium. The cost of real estate itself is around 38% lower. So are the costs of maintaining a property (energy costs 22% lower; labor costs 14% lower).

The New Primary Markets?

With respect to income, secondary market housing prices are up to 45% more affordable. Individuals notice this, and so do commercial investors and developers. This is why the mad rush to cities like Phoenix and San Diego will be red hot for the next few years, say investors, even in relation to established cities like Los Angeles and New York.

No matter where you are looking to purchase your new home, it is essential that you rely on your trusted mortgage professional to explore your financing options. Finding out how much you can afford can be a key element in deciding which market could be the best fit for you. 

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows to 20-Month Low

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Case-Shiller Home Price Growth Slows to 20-Month LowHome price growth slowed to its lowest rate in 20 months according to the 20-City Home Price Index issued by Case-Shiller. After years of dismal readings, Las Vegas, Nevada led the cities included in the index.

Top three cities for August included Las Vegas, Nevada where year-over-year home prices grew by 13.90 percent. San Francisco, California saw home prices increase by 10.60 percent year-over-year and Seattle, Washington home prices rose by 9.60 percent year-over-year. August’s 20-City Home Price Index overall reading fell below six percent for the first time in a year.

Cooling Home Price Growth Helps Balance Housing Markets

Cooling home prices have been forecast for months, but August’s reading indicated that home prices have peaked and that current home price growth rates may ease pressure on overheated real estate markets, where high home prices, limited inventories of homes for sale and rising mortgage rates have limited buying opportunities. Home price growth remained above current rates of wage growth and inflation, but slower appreciation of home values will help balance the housing market from an extreme sellers’ market to more moderate market conditions.

Rising Mortgage Rates Not Sole Cause of Easing Home Prices

Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan recently said that rising mortgage rates were not the only cause of slowing growth of home prices. Mr. Kaplan said that multiple factors including rising building costs, labor shortages and rising mortgage rates combined to ease record demand for home; Mr. Kaplan said that the Fed is closely monitoring the economy and housing markets and mentioned that he had previously forecast slower housing markets as 2019 approaches.

Recent stock market sell-offs boosted the 10-year Treasury note price, but this momentum appears to be settling. Fixed mortgage rates are connected to yields on 10-year Treasury notes. Yields rise as note prices decline. Mortgage rates rise as the 10-year Treasury yield rises. While nothing is set in stone, this situation indicates that mortgage rates could continue to rise.

Rising mortgage rates and strict mortgage lending requirements have barred home buyers concerned with affordability and less than perfect credit profiles. As prospective home buyers abandon their home searches, demand for homes should ease and may further reduce gains in home prices.

If you are in the market for a new home or interested in refinancing your current property, be sure to contact your trusted mortgage professional to discuss current financing options.